Malaysians need a new national consensus after six decades of nation-building to be a world-class great nation and to better prepare for a pandemic economic recovery
It gives me no pleasure or satisfaction to forecast Malaysia’s overtaking China or that we will exceed the 100,000 mark for cumulative total of Covid-19 cases by Christmas tomorrow and to be proved right for these are sad and dishonourable milestones for Malaysia.
But with Malaysia recording an average of 2,000 Covid-19 new cases daily, the cumulative total of Malaysia by the end of January, February and March 2021 are likely to be 175,000, 230,000 and 300,000 Covid-19 cases respectively.
This is far below the projections of the recent model of the United States Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) which projected a continuous rise in Covid-19 cases in Malaysia until mid-March 2021, hitting over 5,000 infections daily from February 25, 2021.
The IHME model predicted 2,987 new Covid-19 cases in Malaysia on January 1, increasing to 4,176 Covid-19 infections on February 1, and 5,130 cases on March 1. The trend is projected to rise until March 21 with 5,379 infections that day, and then declining to 5,301 cases on April 1.
According to the IHME model, Malaysia’s cumulative total of Covid-19 cases at the end of March will be the in region of 400,000 cases, which would have placed Malaysia in the bracket of the world’s top 30-40 countries with the most cumulative total of Covid-19 cases.
Fortunately, Malaysia’s trajectory in the rise of daily Covid-19 infections is below the projection of the IHME model, although it is still at a rate which must be the concern of all Malaysians.
On June 1 this year, Malaysia “Total cases per 1 million population” index was 243. Today, it is more than 12 higher, i.e. 3,032 as compared to China, whose “Total cases per 1 million population” index was 58 on June 1 and is now 60.
In fact, Malaysia has a higher “Total cases per 1 million population” index than most countries in Asia and ASEAN, apart from Singapore (9,959) and Philippines (4,208). In Asia, we have a higher index than Japan (1,608), South Korea (1,025) and Taiwan (33). In Asean, we are even higher than Indonesia (2,494). The index in other ASEAN countries are Thailand (82), Vietnam (15), Cambodia (22) and Laos (6).
Countries with the highest “Total cases per 1 million population” index are Luxembourg (71,667), Czechia (60,298), United States of America (56,990), Belgium (54,169), Georgia (53,914), Bahrain (52,518), Qatar (50,733) and Panama (49,965).
I congratulate the Minister for Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin if Malaysia is getting cheaper Pfixer Covid-19 vaccine than Belgium, but from the time schedule for the receipt for the first batch of the vaccine in Malaysia, it is not going affect the grim picture of the Covid-19 pandemic in Malaysia in the first quarter or even the second quarter of next year.
It is of the utmost importance and urgency that the Muhyiddin Government should finally heed the call for an “all-of-government” and “whole-of-society” strategy and approach in the war against the Covid-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
Malaysia needs a new national consensus after six decades of nation-building for Malaysia to be a world-class great nation and to better prepare for a pandemic economic recovery.