Will Parliament be dissolved in the third week of March and PPBM deregistered before Nomination Day of 14GE?

Political news jostled for attention in the past few days but two items won hands down last night, raising two questions: Will Parliament be dissolved in the third week of March and will Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) of Tun Mahathir Mohamad and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin be deregistered before Nomination Day so that it could not use its party symbol in the 14th General Election?

This follows two news reports: One that the Election Commission has submitted its final report on the redelineation of electoral constituencies for parliamentary and state constituencies to the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

This means that a motion of the Prime Minister on the redelineation of constituencies is likely to be placed on the parliamentary order paper next week, which could be adopted as early as the Monday of the third week of March, ile. March 18.

The Thirteenth Schedule of the Malaysian Constitution, reads:

”9. As soon as may be after the Election Commission have submitted their report to the Prime Minister under section 8, he shall lay the report before the House of Representatives, together (except in a case where the report states that no alteration is required to be made) with the draft of an Order to be made under section 12 for giving effect, with or without modifications, to the recommendations contained in the report.

“10. If any draft Order referred to in section 9 is approved by the House of Representatives by resolution supported by the votes of not less than one half of the total number of members of that House, the Prime Minister shall submit the draft Order to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.

“11. If a motion for the approval of any draft Order referred to in section 9 is rejected by the House of Representatives, or is withdrawn by leave of the House, or is not supported by the votes of not less than one-half of the total number of members of the House, the Prime Minister may, after such consultation with the Election Commission as he may consider necessary, amend the draft and lay the amended draft before the House of Representatives; and if the draft as so amended is approved by the House by a resolution supported by the votes of not less than one-half of the total number of members of the House, the Prime Minister shall submit the amended draft to the Yang diPertuan Agong.

“12. Where the draft of an Order is submitted to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong under this Part, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall make an Order in the terms of the draft submitted to him, and the Order shall come into force on such date as may be specified therein: Provided that the coming into force of any such Order shall not affect any election to the House of Representatives or a Legislative Assembly until the next dissolution of Parliament or the Assembly, as the case may be, occurring on or after that date.”

Hence the question whether Parliament will be dissolved in the third week of Parliament for the 14th General Election.

But an international news magazine, the Economist, has beaten the Prime Minister and the Election Commission to the gun with an article in the Leaders Section under the headline: “Stop, thief! Malaysia’s PM is about to steal an election”

It is a shocking and agonising reflection as to how low Malaysia’s international stocks and standing have fallen in the last few years, after Malaysia had catapulted to the stratosphere of a global kleptocracy.

The Economist article said Najib feared that most voters would not vote Barisan Nasional to power again if given a choice, and that Najib is "taking their choice away" by means of gerrymandering and malapportionment, among other tactics.

It cited the 1MDB scandal, in which US authorities say billions of ringgit have been misused.

It said: "In most countries, a government that allowed US$4.5 billion to go missing from a state development agency would struggle to win re-election.

"If some US$681 million had appeared in the prime minister's personal account around the same time, which he breezily explained away as a gift from an unnamed admirer, the task would be all the harder.

"An apparent cover-up, involving the dismissal of officials investigating, or merely complaining about the scandal, might be the last straw for voters. But in Malaysian elections, alas, voters do not count for much."

The Economist noted that the gerrymandering practice (malapportionment) is so unfair that it is illegal in most countries, including Malaysia, where the constitution says that electoral districts must be 'approximately equal' in size.

The second news item is equally ominous.

Is the 30 days’ notice given by the Registrar of Societies Suriyati Ibrahim to PPBM until March 29 to provide answers and documents an indication that the PPBM would be deregistered in circumstances that the party which Tun Mahathir and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin had formed would not be able to participate as a political party using its party symbol in time for Nomination Day for the 14th General Election?

In the last few days, several political news had jostled for national attention, but the following three items lead the field:

Firstly, the revelation by PKR National Vice Chairman and Invoke founder, Rafizi Ramli that latest Invoke survey results indicate the Pakatan Harapan can win five states in the 14th General Election – Kedah, Perak and Johor as well as retaining Selangor and Penang.

The Invoke survey, which polled 2,000 respondents also revealed:

• the possibility of two hung state assemblies - Malacca and Negri Sembilan;
• calculates that Harapan is expected to win 89 parliamentary seats in the Peninsular over the expected 76 seats to be won by BN; and
• PAS will not win any parliamentary or state seats and will even lose Kelantan - a state it has held since 1990 - to BN.

Rafizi expected Pakatan Harapan to win eight parliamentary seats in Sabah and five to six in Sarawak. Taken altogether, Invoke's model predicts that, for now, the opposition is capable of winning 103 seats - 19 short to form the federal government.

Rafizi said Invoke's survey found that 44.2 percent of Chinese voters would support Harapan while 18.9 would support BN. He said the data showed that none would vote for PAS.

As for Indian voters, Rafizi said the survey showed that 45.4 percent would vote for BN while 24.9 percent supported Harapan and another 0.2 percent backed PAS.

However, some 30 percent to 35 percent of voters remain undecided.

Secondly, the launch of the Pakatan Harapan Manifesto for the 14th General Election on Thursday night, which was the most powerful rebuttal of the lies, falsehoods and hypocrisies coming from UMNO/BN quarters and their army of quinoa cybertroopers that the Malays will perish if UMNO is defeated.

The Malays in Penang and Selangor, just like the Chinese and Indians, had a better deal under the Pakatan State Governments in the past ten years since 2008 than when under the previous UMNO/BN rule.

Similarly, all Malaysians, whether Malays, Chinese, Indians, Kadazans, Ibans or Orang Asli will have a better life under Pakatan Harapan Federal Government after the 14th General Election as spelt out in the Pakatan Harapan 14th General Election Manifesto.

Pakatan Harapan wants to continue as the Federal Government in the 15th and 16th General Elections and in the decades after, and we are fully conscious that if Pakatan Harapan Federal Government in Putrajaya fails to deliver its promises to all Malaysians, whether Malays, Chinese, Indians, Kadazans, Ibans or Orang Asli, to have a better life, the voters have the right to reject Pakatan Harapan in future general elections and elect a replacement, including UMNO/BN if still on the political scene.

Thirdly, the ludicrous claim by the Inspector-General of Police, Tan Sri Mohamad Fuzi Harun that there is “nothing to link Jho Low with 1MDB” - evidence that Najib and his UMNO/BN strategists and quinoa cybertroopers would be launching a major pre-general election media offensive on Fake News designed to (i) peddle the notion that the entire 1MDB scandal is “fake news”; and (ii) to harass and persecute Pakatan Harapan and civil society leaders for violation of “fake news” laws when they are in fact speaking the truth about corruption, abuses of power and misdeeds of the present-day Government in Putrajaya. The Azalina Committee on Fake News is a part of this major UMNO/BN offensive on fake news.

Things will not hot up further in the coming days and weeks up to the 14th GE.