Pakatan Harapan will win 39 seats, BN 20 and PAS zero seats in Perak State Assembly if there is a three-cornered contest with a Malaysian tsunami with a swing of 10% Malay votes and 5% non-Malay votes to Pakatan Harapan from Barisan Nasional in the 14GE
In the past week, I had discussed the possibility of Pakatan Harapan (PH) winning 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia with the help of a Malaysian tsunami which will rid the country of BN’s 60 year rule and allow Malaysia to start on a clean slate under a new government.
In such a scenario, Barisan Nasional will win 50 parliamentary seats and PAS two seats in Peninsular Malaysia, setting the stage for formation of a Pakatan Harapan Government in Putrajaya with Sabahans and Sarawakians.
This Malaysian tsunami will take place if 10% of Malays and 5% of non-Malays were to switch their votes from the BN in the 13th General Election in 2013 to Pakatan Harapan in the forthcoming 14th General Election and that voters make a clear distinction between supporting Pakatan Harapan and rejecting PAS, as the PAS leadership under Datuk Seri Hadi Awang has become the greatest apologist and defender of Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s kleptocratic regime.
In the 13th General Election, Pakatan Rakyat won 53% of the popular vote but Najib became the first minority Prime Minister because Barisan Nasional won 60% of the parliamentary seats despite getting the support of the minority of the votes – thanks to the gerrymandering and undemocratic electoral system in the country.
The same electoral injustice happened in Perak in the 13GE, where the Pakatan Rakyat in Perak won 55% of the popular vote for the Perak State Assembly, but Barisan Nasional continued to form the Perak State Government as it won 31 State Assembly seats as against 28 for Pakatan Rakyat.
In four Perak State Assembly seats, PR lost by less than 303 votes – Lubuk Merbau where PR lost by 53 votes, Manjoi by 132 votes; Manong by 231 votes and Pasir Panjang by 302 votes.
If there is a three-cornered contest for the Perak State Assembly seats with PAS playing the spoiler’s role, with a swing of increase of 10% support from Malay voters and increase of 5% support from non-Malay voters from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Harapan, a likely outcome will be Pakatan Harapan 39 seats, Barisan Nasional 20 seats and PAS zero seats.
Perak would then be one of the state governments which will fall to Pakatan Harapan in the next general election.
The best time for Najib to dissolve Parliament and hold the 14th General Elections would have been the 12 months after the Sarawak State General Elections on May 7, 2016 and the two by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar on 18th June 2016, but Najib has missed this golden opportunity to get his best electoral results.
Since 14th July 2017, the political situation in the country had undergone a sea-change with the four Opposition parties, the DAP, PKR, Amanah and Parti Pribumi Bersatu getting their acts together after the announcement of a new Pakatan Harapan structure, logo and leadership line-up.
This re-ignited hopes of Malaysians thirsting for political change and for a new start in Malaysian nation-building, to halt the trajectory of the country hurtling towards a failed and a rogue state, and even worse, deviating from our nation-building and Constitutional commitment to remain forever a moderate and democratic plural nation.
Recent police warning that the Islamic State (IS) is planning to launch an attack in Perak during the upcoming Merdeka celebrations, and recent declarations by international Islamic scholars and academicians that Malaysia is no more a moderate nation are disturbing developments which bode ill for the future unless these signals are taken seriously by all patriotic Malaysians.
It is not an easy task to bring about a swing of 10% of Malay votes and a 5% swing of non-Malay votes from Barisan Nasional in the 13GE to the Pakatan Harapan in the 14GE, but all patriotic Malaysians, regardless of race, religion, region or even politics, must unite to Save Malaysia from becoming a failed and rogue state for the sake of our children and children’s children.