DAP must play a bigger part in helping Pakatan Harapan win Kedah in GE14
Previously, I said that the 10 and 5 formula for Pakatan Harapan – to win an additional 10% of Malay and 5% of non-Malay votes – would allow PH to win a majority of parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia and also win the state governments of Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Johor and to retain the state governments in Penang and Selangor.
Under this scenario, Pakatan Harapan will win 18 out of 36 state seats in Kedah and BN will win the rest of the 18 seats. PAS would not win a single state seat in Kedah with the 10 and 5 formula but they would play the role of ‘spoiler’ in 14 out of the 18 state seats projected to be won by the BN. This means that BN will win 14 state seats with less than 50% of the popular vote in 3-corner fights.
For PH to win control of the Kedah state government, it requires a few additional hurdles to be crossed.
Firstly, Pakatan Harapan, in the home state of Tun Dr. Mahathir, must be able to capture seats in areas that are known to be BN strongholds including the 2 state seats – N1 Ayer Hangat and N2 Kuah – on the island of Langkawi as well as the 2 state seats – N5 Bukit Kayu Hitam and N6 Jitra – in Kubang Pasu. If, for example, PH were to win the parliament seat of Langkawi and the two state seats on the island, a previously unthinkable scenario, this would be a definitive sign of the Malaysian electoral tsunami which would start from Kedah and sweep through the rest of Peninsular Malaysia to Johor.
Secondly, the DAP must be allowed to help Pakatan Harapan create this Malaysian electoral tsunami in Kedah. In the 2013 general election, DAP only contested in 2 state seats and no parliament seats. The DAP won both of its state seats – N11 Derga in the Pokok Sena parliamentary constituency and N13 Kota Darul Aman in the Alor Setar parliamentary constituency. Both of these seats are located in or near the Alor Setar area.
For DAP to help increase the support for PH, especially among the non-Malay voters, it must be given the opportunity to contest in seats in central as well as southern Kedah.
In central Kedah, the DAP is asking to contest in the state seat of N22 Gurun in the parliament seat of Jerai, an ethnically mixed seat (56% Malay, 27% Chinese, 17% Indian), which was won by MCA in GE2013 against a PKR candidate, with a 1296 vote majority.
In southern Kedah, the DAP is asking to contest in the state seat of N35 Kulim, also an ethnically mixed seat (60% Malay, 23% Chinese and 17% Indian), which was won by MCA in GE2013 against a PKR candidate, with a 643 vote majority.
If DAP does not contest in any seats at the parliament or state levels in central or southern Kedah, it would make it more difficult to mobilize our supporters to come out to support PH and to win control of the Kedah state legislature.
Thirdly and lastly, PH in Kedah must show that we are a united force that is more than capable of challenging the BN in the state. The stronger PH is, the clearer will be the choice for voters. This will make it more likely for fence sitters and pro-opposition supporters to cast their vote for PH rather than wasting their vote on other parties which does not have any chances of winning power, either at the state or at the federal levels.