10 and 5 formula sufficient for Pakatan Harapan to win Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Johor and retain Penang and Selangor
Last week, I discussed the possibility of Pakatan Harapan (PH) winning 113 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia with the help of a Malaysian tsunami which will rid the country of BN’s 60 year rule and allow us to start on a clean slate under a new government.
This Malaysian tsunami will take place if 10% of Malays and 5% of non-Malays were to switch their votes from the BN to PH and that voters make a clear distinction between supporting PH and support PAS.
Under these circumstances, even with PAS playing the role of a spoiler, PH will not only win the majority of parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia, it will also win control of the state governments in Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Johor in addition to retaining Penang and Selangor with even larger majorities compared to GE2013 (See Table 1 below).
Table 1: Number of state seats won by PH under the 10 and 5 formula (10% Malay and 5% non-Malay swing against the BN)
|BN||20 (34%)||17 (47%)||20 (35%)||3 (7%)||6 (11%)|
|PH||39 (66%)||19 (53%)||36 (65%)||37 (93%)||50 (89%)|
Note: PAS is left with 10% of the Malay vote and a negligible % of the non-Malay vote under the Malaysian tsunami scenario
If PH can gain control of the governments of the five most economically dynamic states in Peninsular Malaysia and also form the federal government, this will pave the way for a genuine economic and political transformation of the nation.
The Penang and Selangor state governments have led the way in the past eight years in introducing reforms at various levels and showing what good governance means in practice. With the addition of at least three more state governments, it will not be long before voters in the other states see the obvious differences between a PH government and a BN government.
The Malaysian tsunami will pave the way for a better future for all, at the federal as well as at the state levels.