PAS is in danger of losing nearly all of its parliament and state seats outside the northern states as a result of the tabling of the hudud private members bill

I am amazed at the gullibility and naivete of the Deputy Kelantan PAS Menteri Besar Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah who could say that he does not believe non-Muslims in the country are against hudud and that it was only the DAP which has been making noise.

Let me state that PAS is in danger of losing nearly all of its parliament and state assembly seats outside the northern states as a result of the enactment of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code 2015 and the tabling of the private member's bill by the PAS President, Datuk Seri Hadi Awang on hudud implementation in Kelantan.

PAS won 21 parliament seats in GE2013, 7 of which were outside its northern strongholds of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. In the same election, PAS won 85 state seats, 29 of which were outside Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

Many non-Muslim voters were willing to give their support for PAS candidates in GE2013 because of their desire to kick BN out of office, their trust in the promises of Pakatan Raykat in the Common Policy Framework and the PR Manifesto, and the spirit of comradeship which existed among PR leaders.

With the tabling of the hudud amendment bill in Kelantan and most shockingly, the tabling of a private member’s bill by PAS President in the ongoing parliamentary session, it is fair to say that the non-Muslims’ trust in PAS has all but evaporated.

What will be the likely effect of this on PAS in the next general election assuming this trajectory does not change?

It is likely that PAS will lose somewhere between 30% to 40% of the non-Muslim support in the next general election assuming the continuation of the current trajectory.

What will be the likely political impact?

According to Table 1 below, PAS will lose 7 parliament and 29 state seats if it loses 30% of the non-Muslim vote (Scenario 1).

PAS will be almost wiped out in Selangor. It will lose all of its parliamentary seats in Selangor (Hulu Langat, Shah Alam, Kota Raja, Sepang) and 14 out of the 15 state seats in Selangor.

It will lose all 4 state seats in Johor. It will lose all 5 state seats in Perak. It will lose 2 out of 3 state seats in Pahang. It will lose 4 out of 9 state seats in Kedah.

Under Scenario 1, PAS will be left mostly with parliament and state seats in its northern strongholds. It will retain 14 parliament seats (9 in Kelantan, 4 in Terengganu and 1 in Perak). It will retain 54 state seats, 51 of which are in Kedah (5), Kelantan (32) and Terengganu (14) with only 3 state seats outside these states – 1 in Pahang, 1 in Pulau Pinang and 1 in Selangor.

Under Scenario 2 where PAS will lose 40% of the non-Muslim vote, it will lose 8 parliament seats (including Parit Buntar in Perak) and a further 5 state seats (1 in Kedah, 1 in Kelantan, 1 in Terengganu, 1 Pahang and 1 in Selangor). PAS would be left with 13 parliament seats (9 in Kelantan, 4 in Terenganu).

Does PAS want to go back to the situation in 2004 when it was left with only a handful of parliament and state seats in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu and lose the hard fought ground it has gained in Pulau Pinang, Perak, Selangor and Johor?

The damage has already been done by PAS President Hadi Awang and the Deputy Menteri Besar of Kelantan, Nik Amar.

The only question that remains is whether Hadi Awang wants to restore PAS’ reputation especially among the non-Muslims within the Pakatan Rakyat coalition or whether he wants PAS to contest the next general election on its own.

Table 1: Parliament and State Seats which PAS will lose if it loses 30% and 40% of non-Muslim support based on the GE2013 results