Can PAS lose Kelantan in 14GE?

PAS leaders, like its President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and former Secretary-General Datuk Mustafa Ali have publicly stated that the PAS Progressive’s Gerakan Harapan Baru will not last more than two years.

DAP had always been concerned particularly since the Kelantan floods last December as to whether PAS could again win the Kelantan state government in the next general election.

DAP had informed the top PAS leadership before the 13th General Election in May 2013 that Pakatan Rakyat was on the way to losing Kedah state government in the 13GE and changes were needed in the Kedah Pakatan Rakyat State administration but our concerns and warning fell on deaf ears.

Is it possible that PAS will lose the Kelantan state government in the next general election (GE14)?

Even though the political sentiment at the national level does not seem favourable to UMNO/BN due to factors such as the GST, 1MDB and the worsening economic situation, unique local factors may be sufficient such that PAS may lose votes in Kelantan even as the opposition gains more votes at the national level in the other states.

This is not unprecedented.

For example, Umno/BN gained 3.8% of votes in Kedah in GE13 and won back control of the Kedah state government but at the same time, it lost 3.7% of the votes in Terengganu and nearly lost control of the Terengganu state government.

In Kedah, Umno/BN gained ground because of the weak leadership of the previous PAS Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Azizan Razak.

Similarly in Terengganu, Umno/BN lost ground because of the weak leadership of the UMNO Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Ahmad Said.

In Kelantan, a fall in support by PAS is likely for two main reasons – the passing away of PAS iconic leader and former spiritual leader, Tok Guru Nik Aziz as well as the inability of the current Kelantan state government to manage the post-flood reconstruction and rebuilding efforts.

PAS won approximately 54.5% of the popular vote at the state level in GE13 with 33 state seats (out of 45 state seats). PAS won approximately 53.0% of the popular vote at the parliamentary level in GE13 with 9 out of 14 parliament seats.

The following are the results under three Scenarios whereby PAS loses 3%, 4% and 5% of support at the parliament and state levels in the next General Election.

Under Scenario 1, where PAS will lose 3% of support, it will still be able to win 24 state seats and hold on to the state government.

Under Scenario 2, where PAS will lose 4% of support, it will only win 20 state seats and lose control of the Kelantan state government.

At the parliamentary level, PAS will lose 3 parliament seats under Scenarios 1, 2 and 3.