PAS may suffer a double whammy in next general elections, completely wiped out in Johor, Perak and Malacca, virtually wiped out in Pahang and Kedah and may even lose power in Kelantan after 25 years of rule
If Pakatan Rakyat cannot be saved, it will cost all the three component parties dearly, as a result of the popular disenchantment of the voters throughout the country over the grave breach of trust and failure of the PR parties to be loyal and sincere to the Pakatan Rakyat Common Policy Framework and the operational principle of Pakatan Rakyat consensus that no single party or leader could exercise a veto in PR.
In the three Pakatan Rakyat parties, it will be PAS which is likely to suffer the most in the 14th General Elections in such circumstances.
PAS is in danger of losing nearly all of its parliament and state assembly seats outside the northern states as a result of the enactment of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code 2015 and PAS President and MP for Marang, Datuk Seri Hadi Awang’s private member's bill on hudud implementation.
With a loss of 30% of non-Muslim votes, PAS will lose 7 parliament and 29 state seats it won in the 13GE in 2013.
PAS will be completely wiped out in Johore, Perak and Malacca and virtually wiped out in Selangor, Pahang and Kedah.
In Johore, PAS will lose all 4 state seats, namely Sungai Abong, Maharani, Parit Yaani and Puteri Wangsa.
In Perak, it will lose all the five state seats, namely Titi Serong, Gunong Semanggol, Selinsing, Changkat Jering and Sungai Rapat (Perak).
In Malacca, it will lose its sole State Assembly seat of Bukit Baru.
In Selangor, it will lose all its parliamentary seats (Hulu Langat, Shah Alam, Kota Raja, Sepang) and 14 out of the 15 state seats in Selangor. The Selangor state assembly seats currently held by PAS which are in danger are: Sabak, Taman Templer, Gombak Setia, Hulu Kelang, Lembah Jaya, Chempaka, Dusun Tua, Seri Serdang, Paya Jaras, Meru, Selat Klang, Sijangkang, Morib and Tanjong Sepat. The only Selangor seat PAS may win again will be Bangi.
In Pahang, it will lose two out of three state states, namely Beserah and Tanjung Lumpur.
In Kedah, it will lose the five state assembly seats of Alor Mengkudu, Kubang Rotan, Kuala Ketil and Merbau Pulas.
With a loss fo 30% non-Muslim votes, PAS will be left mostly with parliament and state assembly seats in the northern states. It will retain 14 parliament seats (9 in Kelantan, 4 in Terengganu and 1 in Perak). It will retain 54 state seats, 51 of which are in Kedah (5), Kelantan (32) and Terengganu (14) with only 3 state seats outside these states – 1 in Pahang, 1 in Pulau Pinang and 1 in Selangor.
The loss of PAS state government in Terengganu in 2004 general election and the PAS-dominated Kedah state government in 2013 general election are warning signs that PAS must not take for granted that it is sure to get Malay-Muslim support, as it might be caught by a “double whammy” in the 14th General Elections of being completely wiped out in Johor, Perak and Malacca, virtually wiped out in Pahang and Kedah and may even lose power in Kelantan after 25 years of rule.
If PR cannot be saved, can Barisan Nasional be saved.
This looks more and more grim with the Prime Minister and UMNO/BN President, Datuk Seri Najib Razak prolonging his “labour pains” into the 12th day, paralysed from issuing a statement which the first five Prime Ministers, Tunku Abdul Rahman, Tun Razak, Tun Hussein, Tun Mahathir and Tun Abdullah would have no hesitation in reiterating and reaffirming the core nation-building principle of BN and previously Alliance that hudud laws are against the Malaysian Constitution, the 1963 Malaysia Agreement and not suitable for a multi-racial, multi-religious and multi-cultural nation like Malaysia.
If we re-examine the events of the past year in the hudud controversy, the political parties which have changed their stand on hudud law and implementation apart from PAS are the Barisan Nasional parties including UMNO, MCA, Gerakan, MIC and SUPP in allowing the Kelantan UMNO State Assemblymen to support PAS Kelantan in the Kelantan State Assembly on hudud implementation.
If PR and BN cannot be salvaged, then Malaysians must think the unthinkable before the 14GE of a new Federal Government coalition which is post-BN, post-PR with a new Prime Minister from one of the present MPs who could currently be in BN or PR, from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah or Sarawak and a man or a woman.
Critics have hurled a variety of accusations against me of proposing a new “unity government” between the DAP and UMNO, of proposing a DAP-PKR-MCA-Gerakan coalition and even insinuating that I am begging to get into Najib’s Cabinet.
Clearly, these critics do not understand what “post-BN, post-PR” means. I am not advocating any “unity government” between DAP and UMNO or BN, or even more far-fetched, any DAP-PKR-MCA-Gerakan coalition.
I have stressed that the new Post-BN, Post-PR Federal Coalition before the 14th GE should be fully inclusive of all Malaysian races, religions and regions, in other words, a multi-racial, multi-religious and multi-regional new Malaysian coalition government comprising Muslims and non-Muslims, Malays and non-Malays, and Malaysians from Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah.
Its top priority is to defend constitutionalism and the rule of law, but these must not be its only concerns.
I have touched on
- Five fundamental principles of defending constitutionalism like Islam as the official religion and freedom of practice for other religions; constitutional monarchy; Bahasa Malaysia as official language and free use and study of other languages and upholding the guarantee and spirit of Federalism in the Malaysia Agreement 1963;
- Ten-Point Programme for a High-Performance, Sustainable and Equitable Economy;
- Nine-Point Agenda to restore the doctrine of separation of powers among the Executive, Legislature and Judiciary as well as the independence, professionalism and integrity of national institutions; and
- Seven immediate tasks to promote national unity and understanding among the diverse races, religions and cultures in the country.
The new post-BN post-PR coalition must work to ensure a clean, free and fair Electoral System, based on six reforms to restore the sovereignty of the people in a meaningful parliamentary democracy, viz:
- Enable all citizens age 18 and above to vote via automatic registration.
- Eliminate all weaknesses in the electoral system by cleaning the electoral roll; abolish postal votes for voters within the country and ensure all citizens outside the country can vote.
- Ensure the media provides political parties fair and just space, reasonable campaign period and a clean and free election process.
- Re-delineate constituencies to mirror the principle of One Citizen, One Vote, One Value in order to guarantee a more fair and just representation.
- Grant political parties campaign expenditures based on the percentages of votes in general elections.
- Enact more effective laws to punish candidates or political parties that are involved in corruption or vote-buying practices.