If PAS has no confidence in Pakatan Rakyat achieving great victories if local government elections are restored nationally, PR must return to the drawing board as this does not bode well for PR’s grand design to win Putrajaya in the 14GE
I just do not know whether to laugh or to cry.
Yesterday, the Malay Mail Online carried a report entitled “DAP seeking full ‘control’ of country through third vote, Isma claims”, quoting the latest vitriol by the Deputy President of Islamist group Ikatan Muslimin Malaysia (Isma), Aminuddin Yahaya alleging that “the move to restore local government elections is part of the DAP’s strategy to take over Malaysia as the opposition party already has control of nearly 60 per cent of the state seats in the country”.
He said that DAP lawmakers make up 58 per cent of the total state constituencies in Malaysia and that the figure could reach 60 per cent, with the help of urban based PKR.
This caused me to tweet: “Ignoramus. Don’t even have Std 5 maths std”.
If Aminuddin is right and talking sense, then DAP on its own will be well on the way to capturing power in Putrajaya and forming the Malaysian government. But he is of course talking nonsense.
What a pity Isma has such a Deputy President who is so shallow in basic maths, which does not speak well for the organisation.
Out of a total of 505 State Assembly seats (excluding Sarawak) contested in the 13th General Elections on May 5, 2013, Barisan Nasional won 4,515,228 or 47.25% of the national vote, but 275 state assembly seats or 54% of the total of 505 seats; while Pakatan Rakyat won 4,879,295 votes or 51.06% of the national vote but only 229 State Assembly seats or 45% of the total of 505 seats. One state assembly seat in Sabah was won by a non-Pakatan Rakyat opposition party.
These statistics bespeak of the injustice, inequity and iniquity of the electoral system, with Pakatan Rakyat winning more votes but less seats!
Such injustices were also reflected in the separate state results for the State Assembly seats, for example in Johore, Barisan Nasional secured 53.98% of the vote but 68% of the total of 56 state assembly seats (i.e. 38 out of 56 seats when the proper application of the “one man, one vote, one value” principle would mean 30 BN seats and 26 PR seats in Johore).
Similarly, BN won a disproportionate number of state assembly seats in Malacca, Pahang, Perlis and Sabah compared to the percentage of votes they secured.
The Isma Deputy President must be hallucinating when he claims that the DAP won 58 per cent of the total state constituencies, when the total state assembly seats won by Pakatan Rakyat were only 229 seats or 45 per cent.
This is broken down into 85 State Assembly seats for PAS, 95 for DAP and 49 for PKR, or 16.8% for PAS, 18.8% for DAP and 9.7% for PKR out of he total of 505 state assembly seats.
Where did the ISMA Deputy President get the fact that DAP won 58 per cent of the total state assembly constituencies in the 13GE?
I don’t know what maths Aminuddin used when he further said that with DAP allegedly making up 58 per cent of total state constituencies, the figure could reach 60 per cent with the help of the urban-based PKR, for such a calculation just make no mathematical or even common sense whatsoever.
DAP leaders are very flattered that ISMA feels that DAP alone is capable of capturing full control of the country through the third vote, for this could only mean that the lies about DAP being “anti-Malay” and “anti-Islam” have no traction and DAP must be doing something very right to secure increasing support from the Malays and Muslims in keeping with our commitment to be a political party for all Malaysians, regardless of race, religion or region, and not to be a party for anyone one race or religion only.
But being “flattered” is one thing, being realistic is another. In fact, I dare not even say that the Pakatan Rakyat with three component parties of DAP, PKR and PAS is capable of capturing full control of the country, as a precursor to winning Putrajaya in the 14GE, if there are local government elections with the restoration of the third vote.
My hesitancy has been reinforced by the controversial statement by the PAS President, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang about the restoration of local government elections, which could only mean that the PAS President is not optimistic about PAS electoral chances if local government elections are held throughout the country.
This is because victories in local government elections in other countries have always been a forerunner to victories in national elections, as evidenced by the election of Joko Widodo as Indonesian President after successful election and performance as Governor of Jakarta, and the route taken by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Recep Tayyip Erdogan as respective Mayors of Tehran and Istanbul to become Presidents of Iran and Turkey respectively.
This phenomenon is not confined to the Muslim world, as there are expectations that the incumbent mayors of Seoul and New Taipei, Park Won-Soon and Eric Chua are presidential hopefuls for South Kore and Taiwan for their country’s next presidential elections.
This is a question which had vexed me in the past two days, as to why the PAS President Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang has no confidence that PAS could do well in the local government elections if the third vote is restored.
The ethnic composition of the local government authorities have changed significantly over the decades as a result of the process of Malay urbanization.
The percentage of the Malay population in the urban areas (in Peninsular Malaysia) has increased from 21% in 1957 to 27.6% in 1970 to 37.9% in 1980 to 45.3% in 1991 and 48.3% in 2000.
During the same time period, the percentage of the Chinese population in the urban areas has decreased from 62% in 1957 to 34.8% in 2000.
It has been estimated that this percentage of Malays in the urban areas in Peninsular Malaysia is now close to 60%.
Based on the 2010 Census, there are 148 local authorities in Malaysia, comprising three City Halls, nine City Councils, 37 Municipal Councils and 99 District Councils.
Out of these 148 local authorities,132 have Malay majorities of over 50% of the population, three have Chinese majorities, with 13 having a plurality of races with seven Chinese dominant and six Malay dominant.
Three Chinese majority local authorities out of 148 is only two per cent of the local authorities, or even taking into consideration the seven Chinese-dominant plurality local authority areas, 10 out of 143 local authorities is only 6.7%.
Where does the Chinese grabbing for political power if there is a restoration of the third vote comes from?
This is why the Deputy Prime Minister, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, while talking vaguely about “imbalanced” racial representation when jumping in to support Hadi’s invocation of May 13 race riots if there is restoration of local government elections, also tried to create a red herring by asking whether restoring the third vote would lead to tax hikes – when of course, it should not.
Muhyiddin should explain why is he talking about “imbalanced” racial representation if there is local council elections when 132 of the 148 local authorities have Malay majorities and six with plurality of races have dominant-Malay populations, i.e. 93.2% of the 138 out of 148 local authorities?
If Pakatan Rakyat is serious about capturing Putrajaya in the 14GE in two or three years time, PR must have supreme confidence in capturing the majority of the 148 local authorities if local elections are held with the restoration of the third vote.
Out of these 148 local authorities, 95 have Malay/bumiputra population of over 70%, including 12 in Kelantan, six in Terengganu, nine in Kedah and seven in Pahang.
If PAS has no confidence in Pakatan Rakyat achieving great victories if local government elections are restored, PR must return to the drawing board as this does not bode well for PR’s grand design to win Putrajaya in the 14GE.